Five Projected Trends of the Twenty-First Century
I’ve heard it said that ‘the first twenty years reveal the key trends of a century.’ Whether that is true or not, we have finally completed the first twenty years of the 21st century (yes, I know – the century began in 2001, so technically this isn’t exactly true, but bear with me). So, if these first twenty years are any indication, I offer up five projected trends of the 21st century.
1 – Insurgency is the new warfare – with some exceptions.
Throughout history, warfare has been dominated by state-on-state conflict – one organized group fighting another organized group. The result was clear winners and clear losers. But that approach to warfare is coming to an end. The world’s economies are too interdependent. Obliterating one economy will create too much disruption for other economies. Hence, nations are less willing to risk their own stability by declaring all-out war on other nations. Insurgency and proxy-warfare are taking the place of traditional warfare.
But as populations explode (from 6 billion in 2000 to almost 11 billion in 2100), tensions will inevitably flare, and unique technologies will enable individuals to wage war against nations. Insurgencies will multiply. Assisted by technology and guerilla tactics, a handful of people will be able to take on an entire army. Terrorist tactics will become ever more disruptive, giving greater leverage to smaller groups. Entire nations and economies will be paralyzed by these groups. Conventional armies will find themselves unable to adapt to the unique challenges of insurgency warfare.
Gradually, various nation-states around the world will succumb to guerilla warfare. Here we can observe Mexico as a prime example. A central ‘government’ maintains nominal control, protecting specific interests, while other groups maintain de facto control in various locales, maintaining their own interests, outside the control of the central government. Aided by technology and insurgent methods, these groups are too powerful to be replaced by a traditional authority.
But this is not to say that ‘traditional’ armies will go extinct. Far from it. They will remain central to propping up those governments that do remain. They will remain potent forces that can crush similar armies. And they will maintain enough stability in the world that international mega-corporations, which increasingly control the deep state, will prosper.
China will increasingly flex her muscle, unencumbered by insurgent uprisings. A despotic surveillance state will quickly liquidate any potential threats to the communist order. Military might will force conflicts over the South China Sea, leading to increased tensions with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia – and maybe other nations. Sooner or later, when traditional politics fail to advance China’s interests, a hot war will break out, involving millions of lives and a massive jolt to the global economy.
Similarly, the arctic may be a source of significant tension. As polar ice melts, Russia, China, and America will devote both economic and military resources to gaining control of the new-found Northwest Passage. Russia and America are already gearing up for this conflict (even if America failed to ‘buy Greenland’), and China has expressed its interest by declaring itself a ‘near-arctic state.’
2 – Polarized ideologies – especially nationalism and ecological activism – will dominate politics.
The disintegration of the modern worldview, and its replacement by a postmodern worldview, means that more people will find fewer things that they agree on. Politics in every country will become increasingly polarized. The left will veer ever more to the left, and the right will veer more to the right.
Confronted by growing insecurity in the wider world, many citizens will adopt nationalism, prioritizing the interests of their own country over the interests of a ‘world order’. This means that borders will close, and nations will focus on their own ideals and traditions. Nations will become more homogenous, not less so.
On the other side, ecological activism will push against nationalism, demanding ever more radical sacrifices in an effort to prevent global warming. Never mind that the west cannot stop global warming – the smog machines of the east (China, etc.) are too big to be stopped by western activism. Still, this activism will highlight a sharp divide. Nationalists and ecological activists are exact opposites – the one group prioritizing national interests over the international community, while the other group demands the subjection of national interests for the benefit of global interests.
Those who maintain traditional liberal policies will now move even faster to the left, unencumbered by the leveling influence of modernism. An echo-chamber mentality will predominate so that ideas become ever more unhinged from reality. How long this will go on is unclear, but eventually, the failure of these policies will result in such a strong pushback that postmodern liberalism will fall under its weight – unless it has succeeded first in creating an unstoppable surveillance nanny-state.
And this polarization will be aided by religion. The anti-birth position of liberals ensures that they will not maintain their numbers through natural processes, though they will always have converts to their side. Instead, the high birth rates of religious groups – from evangelical Christians to Mormons to Muslims – ensures that the world will become more, not less, religious. Even if America and Western Europe become increasingly ‘secular’ – and even if the number of self-professed ‘Christians’ decreases – the actual number of serious adherents to religion will rise, not fall.
The GOP will increasingly change form – no longer will it be guided by its traditional platform (i.e., pro-life, limited government, pro-military, etc.). Rather, its platform will expand out to catch anything that isn’t Democratic – this means that while it will continue to hold onto its traditional base, it will shift to a message that is more inclusive, focusing more on economic freedom and nationalism, so as to include anyone who isn’t democratic. In other words, the GOP will be less conservative – more of a catch-all basket for anyone who dislikes liberalism.
3 – Multinational corporations will reduce poverty, even in power vacuums.
International borders have never before been so porous. The rise of the internet and markets means that corporations have new access to new markets. Poverty throughout the world has already plummeted, and with new-found wealth, communities in second and third world markets will become increasingly lucrative markets.
Western corporations will naturally spread to these regions. As they do so, they will increase the standard of living even more. Except in those regions of profound instability, genuine poverty will become increasingly rare. Even in those regions of instability, wealth will still accumulate to those who have access to power.
Multinational corporations need access to resources and markets in unstable regions of the world. In order to gain this access, they will become more willing to work outside of legitimate channels of authority. Watch as they start signing deals with rebel groups and insurgencies, to ensure that they can remain in, but stay immune from, political instability. Similarly, multinational corporations will become more politically active. They will work harder than ever to be a ‘deep state’ that ensure that friendly governments stay in control. They will also look toward private armies and security contractors to provide safety for workers in regions outside of formal government control.
The end result is that businesses will stretch around the globe, functioning as quasi-political entities. While this is bad news for those who cross them, it indicates that poverty will continue to decline, second and third world nations will enjoy more luxury goods – and you might be able to order a Starbucks in Tora Bora.
More than that, the West will lose its place of world dominance during the 21st century. The industrial powerhouses of the world are no longer places like Britain and America – they are nations like BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – or nations like MINT – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey. These are the industrial powerhouses of the world, producing global goods and housing populations that are, or are about to, balloon.
4 – Global religions will become more prominent, shifting from their traditional associations.
The world – as already mentioned – will become more religious during the 21st century. Modern wars will include more religious imagery and meaning. But these religions will not remain static. They will expand as they capitalize on the innate human thirst for religion. They will contract as they undergo persecution. And, most symbolically, they will shift from their traditional geographic centers.
Islam is projected to grow fastest of all, from just over 20% of the world population in 2000, to almost 35% in 2100 (surpassing Christianity as the world largest religion around 2070). While the Middle East will remain the center of global Islam, India (rather than Indonesia) will contain the largest number of Muslims in the world, despite maintaining its Hindu majority. Even so, watch as the West in general – and Europe in particular – become increasingly Islamic (fueling fears among some of a new ‘Eurabia’).
For Christianity, the change will be even more stark. Not only will the west appear increasingly secular, but the center of global Christianity will shift from America to Africa – where, by 2050, four out of every ten Christians will live. This change is sure to result in new expressions of Christianity – as is already apparent in Nigeria (a nation somewhat larger than Texas, but estimated to contain more people than the United States in 2050). In Nigeria, the so-called ‘Prosperity Gospel’ is the primary expression, and it is exported throughout the African continent.
Persecution against evangelical Christians will increase due to nationalism. As already mentioned, nations will become more homogenous, emphasizing their own traditions and customs. This means that nations in the Middle East, for example, will refocus on Islam. Russia is already returning to its Russian Orthodox roots. But in the West – America and western Europe – the ‘return’ will not be to traditional Christianity, but to an even more anti-religious secularism and liberalism. This policy is already apparent in places like Switzerland, where laws to ensure cultural homogeneity are used against not only Muslim immigrants, but also against conservative Christians.
5 – Technological development will revolutionize every aspect of life.
Technology shows no sign of slowing down; it will only move faster. This may accelerate all the other trends. Almost undoubtedly, there will be successful attempts at interplanetary colonization before the end of the century.
The rise of this technology, however, will only increase the number of ethical dilemmas that arise. The world of the 21st century may involve everything from cloned and genetically modified humans to significant uses for aborted fetal tissue. It will be significantly harder, not easier, to navigate life ethically in the midst of this ‘moral mess.’
This is not to say that technology is all bad. It is simply a tool. The rise of multinational corporations will ensure that even the world’s poorest have access to some forms of technology. These newfound tools will revolutionize the global markets. They will drive down prices and make life significantly easier, across the globe. Of course, they will also revolutionize warfare, and in the hands of the wrong people, they could spell disaster. But as technology continues to accelerate, it is simply impossible to predict how it will influence the course of the 21st century.
Some Concluding Thoughts
Every generation, and every century, has its own unique challenges and strengths. There is no doubt that the 21st century has both. It will be an age marked by instability and shifting geopolitical powers, but – in the absence of completely unforeseen events – it will also bring with it astonishing advances in every scientific realm, with prosperity for billions across the globe.
Some people will be excited, stimulated by this new and changing landscape. It certainly presents great opportunities to those who are willing to seize them. But others, understandably, may be disturbed. Many of these trends are troubling.
In this sense, it is helpful to remember what Jesus of Nazareth warned of – “people fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world” (Luke 21:26). Of course, Jesus wasn’t speaking just of the 21st century, but his prediction remains true.
If you can identify with what Jesus said, then consider his advice for such times: “In the world you will have tribulation. But take heart; I have overcome the world” (John 16:33). Here is a promise, for those who believe the words of Jesus. He has this under control. Nothing escapes or undoes his sovereign plan. Even the difficulties of this world are not permanent. For those who already believe him, this is wonderful news. And for those who have yet to believe him, this is an invitation to a peace more powerful than geopolitical instability.
